NEP Methodology Info Now Online

Exit Polls Legacy blog posts

As of yesterday afternoon, the National Election Pool website (exit-poll.net) has posted methodology statements for both the national and statewide exit polls and the complete verbatim questionnaires used in each state. While these statements will not answer every question, they do provide more complete methodological information than what has been readily available online.

Some highlights of what readers will find in the four PDF files now available:

  • National Exit Poll Methodology Statement — The statement includes a description of how telephone samples of absentee or early voters were incorporated into the national sample, a discussion of how samples were weighted, and a table showing the appropriate “confidence intervals” (what we commonly refer to as margins of error) for various sample sizes.
  • State Exit Poll Methodology Statement — Includes similar methodology information as the national statement plus something I have not seen yet: An accounting for each state of the number of sampled precincts, interviews conducted on election day and telephone interviews of early/absentee voters (for the 13 states where such interviews were conducted).
  • National Exit Poll Questionnaire — Readers will note that the pdf file includes four separate versions of the national questionnaire. NEP administered these so that a random one quarter of the roughly 14,000 interviews in the national sample filled out each questionnaire. Some questions (such as the vote and most basic demographics) were asked on all four questionnaires. Some questions, such as President Bush’s job approval rating, were answered by half the respondents (roughly 7,000); others of only one quarter (roughly 3,500).
  • State Exit Poll Questionnaires — This document includes the verbatim questionnaires used on Election Day in 50 states plus the District of Columbia (it omits Oregon). The state name appears in the footer on the bottom right corner of each page. It also includes Spanish language questionnaires in states where they were available. The pdf file does not appear to include questionnaires used for telephone surveys of early absentee votes. Thus, Oregon (which had only early voting) is not included.

According to Joe Lenski of Edison Research, these documents were all provided to NEP member networks on Election Day.  At the request of the networks, and “in the interests of having this information available in one place,” they have made the documents available on exit-poll.net.

Happy reading…more tomorrow…

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Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.