First Impressions

Incumbent Rule Legacy blog posts The 2004 Race

As with any election, the results leave us much to sift through. Although the final counts are not yet available for all states, we can still reach some conclusions about two issues I raised that have also been the subject of much debate. First, the incumbent rule did not apply to the presidential race. Second, the traditional likely voter models performed reasonably well. There was no hidden turnout favoring John Kerry.

At the national level, as of this hour, George Bush is holding a three-point margin (51.4% to 48.3%) over John Kerry. The average of the final polls had Bush ahead by just under two points (48.7% to 47.1%). As in 2000, the surveys overestimated Ralph Nader’s tiny share of the vote. Bush gained more than Kerry compared to the final polls, the opposite of what the incumbent rule predicted.

Table corrected 11/3. Original had inadvertently used allocated results for TIPP

Results at the state level show a similar pattern, although the precise final margins are still subject to change in the few states that continue counting. The table that follows shows how the average of the final polls in each battleground state (as calculated by RealClearPolitics) compares to the current unofficial results. Polls did better in some states than others, but overall, it looks like the margins were close. On first glance, averaging across all battleground states, Bush and Kerry appear to have gained equally compared to their standing in the final state polls.

Updated 5:12 p.m. Nov. 3

Obviously, these topics deserve more careful consideration once we have final results, but it is obvious that (a) the incumbent rule did not apply and (b) that the consensus of the national polls was reasonably close to the final result. While the turnout was heavy, it did not conceal any hidden Kerry vote, as I speculated it might. If anything, the polls slightly underestimated Bush’s national margin.

Why? One big clue should have been the failure of the incumbent rule in 2002, when a number of incumbents received more support on Election Day than on their final polls. In retrospect, I dismissed that contradictory evidence too quickly. John Kerry’s lead pollster, Mark Mellman, was of clearer mind when he wrote this past Sunday:

We simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime. After wars surely, but never in their midst. Republicans have been spinning this fact for months, and they are correct.

A point well taken.

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is political pollster with deep and varied experience across survey research, campaigns, and media. The original "Mystery Pollster" and co-creator of Pollster.com, he explains complex concepts to a multitude of audiences and how data informs politics and decision-making. A researcher and consultant who crafts effective questions and identifies innovative solutions to deliver results. An award winning political journalist who brings insights and crafts compelling narratives from chaotic data.